There have been many of these ice-free-by within the last 20 years, all of which (as far as I can tell) were based on observations rather than models. According to those forecasts (a sampling is listed below) the Arctic Ice sheet should have vanished sometime between 2008 and 2017. Yet current ice extent is, at worst, at the low edge of normal.
So why should we put any more trust in your prognostication than all the previous ones? What were the flaws in those forecasts that your forecast overcame? Why won't your forecast, at the end of your ten-year ice-free-by window, become just another failed prediction joining the list?
You may respond, "But I have the data!" Yes, as did all the others. We have been inundated with data. It has become apparent by now that the data is telling us something completely different from what some people claim.
So tell us why your interpretation of the data is correct when all the others have been so wrong?
August 21, 2016, The Guardian: Arctic summers ice-free by 2017. References: Arctic sea ice reaches second lowest minimum in satellite record. [https://web.archive.org/web/20190925173019/http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/09/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-second-lowest-minimum-in-satellite-record/]
September 17, 2012, The Guardian: Expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years. References: Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University
July 24, 2013: The Guardian:Arctic to be ice-free in 2 years, and create a 'methane catastrophe'. References: unnamed paper by Prof Peter Wadhams published in the journal Nature. [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice]
June 10, 2013: Sierra Club Canada: Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013. Auther: Paul Beckwith (Ph.D student) [https://web.archive.org/web/20130615024931/http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease]
August 18, 2011: 350.org datasheet: Arctic summers ice-free 'early as 2013'. No references. [https://web.archive.org/web/20130513074645/http://www.350.org/sites/all/files/science-factsheet-updated2011.pdf]
December 12, 2007: BBC News: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'. References: Professor Wieslaw Maslowski speaking at an American Geophysical Union meeting. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm]
December 12, 2007: StarNews Online (AP): Arctic to be ice-free 'by 2012'. References: NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally [https://www.starnewsonline.com/article/NC/20071212/News/605128335/WM]
April 27, 2008: NBC News: North Pole could be ice free in 2008. References: Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) [https://web.archive.org/web/20080501171935/http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4728737]
